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October lived up to its reputation as a weak month for the stock market
This Market Recap for October was provided by Scott Olson, Investment Product Marketing
The late-September downturn in the equity markets picked up speed in early October, highlighted by negative investor reaction to the initial rejection by Congress of the U.S. Treasury’s proposed $700 billion rescue plan for the troubled financial system. Volatility spiked again when measured by the increasingly large point and percentage movements of many stock market indexes.
Single-day moves of three percent or more, which previously had been considered fairly sizable, gave way to several trading sessions with even larger intra-day swings. This pickup in volatility, which generally was to the downside during the first two weeks of October, tested the fortitude of investors’ ability to stick with their long-term investment programs.
Markets swing wildly
As mentioned, the first two weeks of the month were marked by significant selling that pushed most equity indexes lower. The broadly diversified S&P 500 Index was down nearly 17 percent in October, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14 percent, its worst month since October 1987. October witnessed the Dow’s second-largest point decline on record, falling 733 points on Oct. 15 but also posting its two largest point gains ever, rising 936 points on Oct. 13 and 889 points on Oct. 28.
Investors in foreign equities experienced similar volatility during the month, with growing concerns that the world was heading into recession combined with a strengthening U.S. dollar pushing the MSCI EAFE Index of developed economy stocks down 20 percent in October.
Interest rates reduced twice
Coupled with the aforementioned $700 billion rescue package, which was passed into law in early October after several features of the originally proposed bill were revised to the satisfaction of legislators, the Federal Reserve temporarily set aside its inflation-fighting efforts by cutting its target for the federal funds rate, not once but twice during the month. The Fed reduced rates by 0.5 percent on two separate occasions in October, bringing the key short-term interest rate measure down to its current 1 percent level.
Other foreign central banks followed suit, with the hope that lower rates will reduce the cost of borrowing for corporations and consumers, thereby encouraging spending that may help prevent the global economic downturn from becoming even more severe.
Within fixed income, investors continued to flock to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds despite their already low yields, and generally shunned corporate bonds on fears of rising defaults as conditions facing companies worsen with weakening consumer spending.
Reasons for optimism?
While the near-term economic outlook remains cloudy at best, with bleak reports on unemployment and manufacturing seemingly far outweighing modestly positive reports in home sales and declining crude oil and gasoline prices, we are optimistic that the steps taken by the government are beginning to have the desired effect.
In our opinion, the credit markets appear to be loosening up, with banks less hesitant to lend some of the money injected by the Treasury out to other banks, corporations and consumers. The short-term commercial paper market, which is vital to the corporate sector’s ability to function in a normal fashion, also seems to be stabilizing.
The problems in the credit markets will likely take some time to be worked out, but other investors appear to be gaining confidence that the situation is improving, with stock markets rebounding sharply in the last two weeks of October. Highlighting this view was the market rally on the day the U.S. Commerce Department released its estimate that the U.S. economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, the most since late 2001 hen the last recession was near an end.
Investors should be prepared for more market volatility
Based on our belief that economic data and corporate earnings reports will likely remain mixed and at times disappointing, investors should be prepared for further market volatility. However, investors should keep in mind that the stock market has historically acted as a leading indicator, beginning to strengthen approximately six months before economic data shows signs of improvement.
Markets can move very quickly, so being in the market is a prerequisite to participating in its eventual recovery. We would encourage investors to work with their financial representative who can be of assistance in positioning their portfolios in an attempt to meet their short- and long-term investing goals.
Securities offered through Thrivent Investment Management Inc., 625 Fourth Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55415-1665, 1-800-THRIVENT (800-847-4836) a wholly owned subsidiary of Thrivent Financial for Lutherans. Member FINRA. Member SIPC. |